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<< Let America Be America Again | Main | The Chalabi Spy Scandal >> June 02, 2004$2/gal- Just a Taste of Coming Oil CrashRead this article and be afraid-- and then get angry at the lies being told to the public. The bottom line of the article is that global energy use is skyrocketing while little new oil is being discovered: new sources of oil are becoming increasingly difficult to find and more expensive to develop. Global discovery peaked in 1964 and has declined ever since. In 2000, there were 16 discoveries of oil "mega-fields." In 2001, we found eight, and in 2002 only three such discoveries were made. Today, we consume about six barrels of oil for every one new barrel discovered.And the numbers you hear out there on available oil are probably lies. The Saudis are lying to us about how much oil they have. The Big Oil companies are lying. And the government is lying. Take the Saudis: A second major problem is the fact that the Saudis will not allow any independent third-party observer to examine their reserves, operations and books. It's off-limits and "totally opaque"... Analysts can't even know for sure exactly how much oil the Saudis produce each day.As for the big oil companies, when Royal Dutch Shell admitted four months ago that it had been lying to shareholders about how much oil they owned, it was treated as a financial scandal. But the Shell lies about having more oil than they actually do could just be the tip of the iceberg: "Most of us can't believe Shell is the only one," says [one analyst]. "Traditionally, they've been very good and conservative in their accounting practices. A bunch of us suspect they are probably just the first to come clean."What this means is that remaining oil will become increasingly valuable. But it also means the politics of cheap oil will inevitably end. The military costs of protecting oil production, as terrorists increasingly target remaining sites, will just increase the real costs. We are unlikely to get a real debate on the need to increase energy efficiency across the economy, expand mass transit, and begin reshaping our communities to decrease energy use over the coming decades. But we desperately need it.
Posted by Nathan at June 2, 2004 05:34 PM Related posts:
Trackback PingsTrackBack URL for this entry: CommentsThe descent from Hubbert's peak will be a painful fall indeed. Where is the visionary leadership needed to conserve and convert to a renewable energy economy? Posted by: Keith Brekhus at June 2, 2004 05:02 PM What decades? You mean the decades where everyone dies off from starvation? Or maybe the decades where we try to figure out how to make stuff without plastic and petrochemicals... or is it the decades where we expend copious gobs of the oil we have to kill the people living on top of the oil we need for next year... Economies wont exist as we know them, throw out all the old formulas, throw out all the old rules. Some of the blinkered little proles who read this post will probably think you're being alarmist or silly...they'll look back and wonder how you understated this so badly... live for now... Posted by: sampo at June 2, 2004 07:14 PM Maybe we should re-watch the "Mad Max" movies to prepare us for what is to come. Posted by: Doug at June 2, 2004 10:57 PM I can remember one of the first things that dirt bag reagan did when he came into office-cancel all of Jimmy Carter's alternative energy programs. This was a purposeful act to keep our economy dependent on Saudi oil, this is simply a fact. I find it hard to believe that 25 years of continued research wouldn't have yielded discoveries that would have moved our economy from one dependent on cheap oil. No one seems to want to remember what reagan did, but much of this can be laid at his feet. Posted by: SlcInCny at June 3, 2004 09:03 AM National security requires that all energy-related patents, in fact all patents held by oil companies, be immediately published and declared to be in the public domain. Watch the alternative energy possibilities soar! Posted by: Larry C. at June 3, 2004 11:22 AM Geez Nathan can you get your underwear anymore in a knot? Posted by: Steve at June 3, 2004 01:15 PM SlcInCny, That's a very twisted view of history. Carter's projects, being true sons of their father, were losers. Hostages came home and oil flowed when Ronald Reagan became President. Larry C., That's a twisted conspiratorial view. Patents are already published. That's part of how to get a patent. There are no secrets. Nathan, Twisted AND chicken little. Posted by: Smitty at June 3, 2004 04:30 PM Yeah, Smitty, the hostages came home because Reagan conspired with a hostile foreign government to pay them off if they held the hostages until after the election so Carter would lose. Then, down the road, we end up with Iran-Contra. Way to bring responsibility and morality back to public life, Ronnie, you WWII-avoiding, divorced hypocrite. Posted by: Nick at June 3, 2004 07:48 PM Smitty, wrote: "SlcInCny, That's a very twisted view of history. Carter's projects, being true sons of their father, were losers. Hostages came home and oil flowed when Ronald Reagan became President." This is a completely twisted entry, and ridiculous. As usual a freeper making a statement with absolutely no back up. The solar projects Carter had the gov't fund were in their infancy, imagine 25 years of continued research. God, what an idiot. Posted by: SlcInCny at June 4, 2004 09:37 AM sad and scary. maybe it's time folks started looking more seriously into turkey oil (another article at Discovery is subscription only, but also seems to appear in its entirety here) Posted by: DesertJo at June 4, 2004 01:51 PM Carter's alternative energy projects were a mixed bag. Oil shale projects, particularly in Colorado had the probablity of long term environmental costs far exceeding those of conventional oil extraction. The wind and photovoltaic investments were expensive, although they are finally starting to have commercial viability. Finally, the most obvious source of energy, conservation, is extremely competitive with any alternative energy energy source. IMHO, the obvious approach to energy conservation is taxation of oil or other consumptive energy resources. Posted by: Dave C at June 5, 2004 06:37 PM Theoretically, the best way for government to promote conservation of non-renewable resources would be to make sure they're owned, and there's a transparent, liquid market in them. If something is scarce and non-renewable, it's going to become more scarce as it's used up, which means it's going to get more valuable. If it's going to get more valuable, that means people can make money by buying it and not letting it be used until later, i.e. they have an economic incentive to conserve. As it is, oil in the ground is not owned. Land is owned, and rights to remove oil are leased. No one even knows how much oil is in the ground, nor where a substantial part of it is. Also theoretically, the incentive to conserve for later use is a separate issue from the externalities associated with using a resource now versus later versus not at all. That's not necessarily true in practical terms either, in the way the decisions are actually made. Posted by: Dan Wylie-Sears at June 7, 2004 07:20 PM Join the Linux community. Linuxwaves.net Posted by: Venetia at July 6, 2004 11:28 AM Post a comment
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