|
<< Oregon SEIU Organizes String of Nursing Homes | Main | Bush is Unelectable >> December 12, 2003Is Growth Real? More on InflationThe Bureau of Economic Affairs (BEA) has just done a massive reworking of how it calculates GDP, rejiggering numbers back to 1929. Nothing particularly sinister in all this-- it's done every few years-- although a little skepticism on political choices made is in order. The statistics agencies have a good reputation for independence, but... However, on the topic of the odd calculations used to measure inflation based on qulaity improvements in technology (see this post), the BEA has thrown in the towel and admitted that it's "quality adjustments" were just mucking up the numbers. The result: after adjusting for inflation and quality changes, computers contributed over half of the economy's growth in the second quarter. But, by another measure, computers accounted for less than a tenth of it...They haven't had a chance to rework the third quarter GDP numbers yet, but some analysts are expecting a revision downwards: The third quarter 2003 growth, so loudly trumpeted by the administration at 8.2 percent, may similarly be revised down; indeed, it is likely to be so, since it is notable in the BEA's current revisions that it is the quarters of exuberant growth, such as the first quarter of 2002, that disappear when the arithmetic is done properly.There seems little question that the economy has picked up a bit, but the mixed numbers mean everyone should be a bit skeptical of taking any one number, even the GDP, as signalling anything by itself. Posted by Nathan at December 12, 2003 11:29 AM Related posts:
Trackback PingsTrackBack URL for this entry: CommentsIt'd be nice in a world where economics is a religion and economists the high priests if the priests would make a distinction between numbers that have a clear, obvious connection to actual human welfare and the abstractions which are hard to measure and where their significance isn't clear. Nathan and other leftwing economists usually make an attempt to do this, but not everyone does. So unemployment means something (though it might be hard to measure, given that some workers have given up) and income statistics mean something, but I'm not so sure about GDP and productivity and so forth. GDP, I gather, doesn't include things like damage to the environment and some leftists I've read say that disasters can actually raise GDP (because people spend money to fix what was broken). And productivity--well, I can understand that a factory which makes 2 million widgets with the same resources that another uses to make 1 million identical widgets is twice as productive, but it just strikes me as a little implausible that one could add together all the different forms of work done in an economy and assign a productivity number to it that means anything important or interesting. Are kindergarten teachers today more productive than they were a few decades ago? I don't know the answer--my perhaps faulty understanding is that they would be, because their real income is higher. Just ranting--if I've made some mistakes I'd welcome correction. (Honest). Posted by: Donald Johnson at December 12, 2003 04:09 PM Here's a key sentence from the article: "We also now know that the economy stumbled just before the 2000 election, with a quarter of negative growth in the third quarter of the year instead of the weakly positive growth previously reported . . " So can we put to bed the notion that Al Gore lost the 2000 election despite a booming economy?
Posted by: Tom Geraghty at December 14, 2003 07:37 PM Nice try Nathan, but you missed some important points. It isn't just one number that is looking good, but several. Unemployment is down, corporate profits are up, consumer confidence is up, and other leading economic indicators are also showing positive growth. Posted by: Steve at December 15, 2003 12:55 PM Post a comment
|
Series-
Social Security
Past Series
Current Weblog
January 04, 2005 January 03, 2005 January 02, 2005 January 01, 2005 ... and Why That's a Good Thing - Judge Richard Posner is guest blogging at Leiter Reports and has a post on why morality has to influence politics... MORE... December 31, 2004 December 30, 2004 December 29, 2004 December 28, 2004 December 24, 2004 December 22, 2004 December 21, 2004 December 20, 2004 December 18, 2004 December 17, 2004 December 16, 2004
Referrers to site
|