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July 30, 2002

Bush Poll Drop Deeper than It Looks

A number of polls show Bush dropping into the 60s approval range. As I've noted, Zogby's polls, which had him there for a few weeks, are probably better indicators in the current climate.

Now, on the big yes-no question, Bush's approval numbers have held steady in Zogby's polls, even clicking up by a few points to 64% approval last week. But Zogby's subtler division of approval for Bush into "excellent","good","fair" and "poor" categories shows dramatic erosion of support for Bush among his core supporters. Up until last week, Bush's loss of approval had all come from his more luke-warm "good" supporters moving into the "fair column." However, Bush has now had a relatively dramatic fall in those deeming his performance "excellent", with that core support falling from 32% the week of July 16th down to just 25% last week. So beneath the surface, even large numbers of Bush fanatics are losing faith in him, probably a much greater danger sign for Bush than the marginally favorable moving into the marginally unfavorable.

Beyond the corporate scandals, I have a lot of other reasons why Bush's support will erode farther, given my declaration over a month ago that he will lose the election in 2004. People really haven't yet focused on the fact that we will have a $165 billion deficit this year-- a massive WorldCom level squandering of the surplus by Bush. And middle class elderly won't be getting a prescription drug benefit on top of seeing their savings pulverized-- all as Bush's fellow CEOs enjoy tax breaks at their expense. Lots of room for free fall in those political numbers.

Posted by Nathan at July 30, 2002 01:26 AM

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