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<< Mexican Opposition Denounces Bush-Fox Immigration Plan | Main | Dubya- Higher Disapprove than Dad/Carter 80 >> January 16, 2004Kerry Comeback?Kerry is actually leading in Iowa in some polls. This actually makes me happy, since I've always liked Kerry best as a person-- more than Dean in fact, since I greatly admire Kerry's history of leadership of the antiwar movement and his relentless pursuit of Reagan-CIA malfeasance in Central America in the 1980s. Kerry's just run a lousy campaign, and there is truth that lousy judgement in picking campaign aides can also mean picking lousy administration officials. I'm still with Dean for the nomination, since I think his CAMPAIGN reflects both the best chance to defeat Bush and the better administration reflecting the grassroots of the party. But if anyone is my choice to emerge as the "anti-Dean", it's definitely Kerry. I'm hoping a boost out of Iowa will deflate the New Hamphire Clark boomlet. And despite the wisdom that Kerry's numbers can't hold up in Iowa, since organization will beat general popularity, in a heavily divided race, the odd caucus system means that votes will shift based on strategic decisions and second-choices. And Kerry has always maintained a status as many peoples' second choice. So Kerry does have the potential for a surprise in Iowa. And if he somehow miraculously pulls off the nomination, he will be a much better candidate for being kicked off his complacent safe original "front-runner" strategy and being forced to desperately work for it. I'd still put the money on Dean to pull it out in the end, but it is fun to have a nail-biter in Iowa. Update: Kevin Drum is dreaming of a brokered convention. I would not bet my home on Dean clinching the nomination but I would on there being almost zero chance of a brokered convention. The momentum of the race invariably begins cutting down the race to a few candidates. Given the financial problems of running a race, once any major candidate loses hope of winning the nomination, they have to drop out and invariably begin cutting deals, both for influence and for help in paying off their debt. Unless Gephardt's organization pulls off a big win, even a close victory by him means he's essentially out of the race given he has no money to move onwards without a major boost. I thought this was going to narrow quickly to Dean versus Clark, but a victory or close second by Kerry could allow Kerry to surge past Clark in New Hampshire, so that may create a bit of skirmishing over which one of them gets to be the "anti-Dean." But I'm still betting this race is over by March 2, if not before. Posted by Nathan at January 16, 2004 07:59 AM Related posts:
Trackback PingsTrackBack URL for this entry: CommentsThose are DNC/DLC skewed polls against Dean. None take into account new voters, for example. Posted by: cosmic grappler at January 16, 2004 09:11 AM I agree with you, Nathan. Actually, I'd be happy with any of them running as my candidate against Bush. Except Clark, that is. What is the point in running one Republican against another? I can't believe this Republican reject actually has a chance to be the Democratic Party candidate. Posted by: John Q at January 16, 2004 09:26 AM For those of you who think Clark is too Republican for us, please read the letter which Michael Moore sent to his supporters in which he endorses Wesley Clark. http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/message/index.php Posted by: Kevin Block-Schwenk at January 16, 2004 10:22 AM Sorry, Kevin, but I don't give a rat's ass what Michael Moore thinks about anything! Remember, he was a big Nader backer last year. An astute political thinker he is not. Besides, I know it defies conventional wisdom, but Clark -- a first time candidate, for anything, with a questionable military record -- stands about as much chance of beating Bush as Kucinich does. At least Kucinich a) has political campaign experience; and b) actually has a platform (albeit out of the mainstream). Wait 'til Rove and his buddies get a hold of Clark. We'll see how "electable" he is then. Posted by: John Q at January 16, 2004 10:43 AM I support Kerry and think he is great--but I'd vote for a dead guy before I'd vote for Bush. My question to is do you guys think it is a good idea to have a Kerry-Dean fight? I'd really rather not because I don't want the party getting torn in two right before going up against Bush and the evil ones. I love Kerry's record and I don't want to see Clark, but the Dean machine seems unstopable. So, now I am in total flux! Posted by: Aimie at January 16, 2004 11:14 AM Aimee, the good news is that, unless you live in Iowa, you don't have to decide just yet. For example state doesn't vote until March 2, so far, my preference has gone Kucinich to Kerry to Dean to Kery to Dean to Clark, and it may well switch again. At this point I've resolved to see how the race plays out. For example: Dean has based a lot of his rationale for running on the strength of his volunteers. However, if he loses repeatedly, this shows that his volunteer base has less ability to swing the election than we all wish to think, so there's less reason to vote for him. Not picking on Dean here. One could make the same argument about any candidate. e.g. Clark's military record is supposed to be a real help, but if he gets flattened, then it means people didn't care about it as much (or he has some other weakness which is overwhelming that). I'm for the best candidate to beat Bush, so long as that person will stand up for real Democratic values. The latter means anyone but Lieberman. As to the former, I'm really not sure, and I don't think any of us can be at this point. Posted by: Kevin Block-Schwenk at January 16, 2004 12:01 PM Amen, Kevin. I honestly cannot see myself voting for Lieberman, and I'm Jewish. I'd be much happier if we could drive him out of the party altogether and replace him with a real Dem in the Senate from Connecticut. On the Michael Moore Clark endorsement: I read the letter when it came out, and was totally unimpressed, and I like Michael Moore's work. Basically, the letter describes how Moore was being attacked in a tv interview after his Oscar acceptance speech, and Clark defended his right to criticize Bush and his patriotism. Moore felt all grateful and gushy inside and developed a crush. Even Madonna's endorsement letter was more substantive. BTW, does anyone know who Mandy Moore, Jessica Simpson, Christina or Britney have endorsed? Posted by: Nick at January 16, 2004 01:15 PM I don't agree that Kerry would be the strongest candidate. I think Dean, Clark and Edwards would be stronger. It would be Dukakis II. Besides, the guy totally pissed me off when he gave his speech attacking fair trade. My number two choice would be Edwards. He's a smart populist who's the best of the bunch on TV. Posted by: Paleo at January 16, 2004 01:45 PM Nick, I know the letter you are referring to, and the one I posted the link to above is a different letter, composed only a few days ago. Please take a look! Posted by: Kevin Block-Schwenk at January 16, 2004 02:45 PM I saw some of Kerry's townhouse meetings in Iowa on C-SPAN earlier this week and he did surprisingly well. I'd prefer him over Dean, about the only thing I've really got against him is that his attacks on Dean don't actually make any sense. "[Kerry] would be Dukakis II" Kerry is a decorated Vietnam vet, Dean was the one gone skiing. Who's going to look better peaking out of the tank, eh? Posted by: buermann at January 16, 2004 04:43 PM Kevin, Thanks for pointing out that this is a new letter, and yes, it's much more substantive than his "draft Clark" missive -- it's even more substantive than Madonna's! Look, I get where Moore's coming from. He's basically saying that Clark is a moderate-liberal trojan horse with a profile that otherwise looks like a solid GOPer (middle-aged military white male gun owner from the South). Swing white males will vote for the uniform, the chiseled jaw, the accent, etc and get a guy committed to social justice. Well, we all thought Clinton was a liberal too, and he did tons of caving in to the right wing, which had a lot to do with much of the left abandoning Gore in 2000. Including Michael Moore (and me, I might add). Still the trojan horse has some appeal. A lot of the "who'll do best against W" stuff depends on who's running the campaign (remember that Gore was a moderate Southern Vet, too), and Clark got off to a decidedly slow start. Also, I admit I'm suspicious of the DLCness of his support, since I think the DLC is a 5th column of reactionism inside the Democratic Party that needs to be utterly destroyed or expelled. I'm planning to support Kucinich til he drops out, assuming he doesn't win, but I'll vote for Clark if he gets the nod. Posted by: Nick at January 16, 2004 04:58 PM I will not vote for Kerry or any other pro-war, bush supporting democrat. I'd rather sit home and watch as the USA endures 4 more years of Bush and Company. May we haven't suffered enough yet. Posted by: jon at January 16, 2004 09:20 PM Kevin, Check out this response to Moore's Clark endorsement on Counterpunch: http://www.counterpunch.org
Posted by: Nick at January 17, 2004 12:37 AM Nick, I just read it. The author makes a good point about Kucinich's vote, though IMHO Moore brought that up mainly as a way of saying "Kucinich is toast; I'm going with someone who has more $, a higher poll standing, and who I think can win in November" without saying that explicitly. As to looking to candidates' past history, I agree that it is important. One difference between Clark and Clinton, however, is that Clark is taking explicit progressive positions: for example, raising the minimum wage to $7/hour and his Families First tax plan to end income taxes on the poorer 50% of families by taxing the ultra-rich more. (Clark is the only candidate to propose raising income tax levels on the ultra-rich to higher than they were under Clinton, though I hear Edwards wants to raise capital gainst taxes on the ultra-rich.) I'm also convinced that only a soldier, a veteran, or a die-hard liberal will have the guts to cut the bloated military budget. Clinton, meanwhile, said a bunch of pretty generalities, but gave very few hard positions. The only actual reversal I recall him making was that he'd promised to let Haitian refugees land rather than tow them out to sea, then didn't change the policy. I think Clinton did say he supported NAFTA during the campaign; it's just that none of us thought he'd make it his #1 priority. BTW, I was a Nader voter in 2000 as well for the same reason as you: hatred of the DLC. Clark's intimate campaign staff does give me the willies, though I figure that with 9 other candidates in the race by the time he entered, he was stuck with the dregs. Posted by: Kevin Block-Schwenk at January 17, 2004 03:04 AM I'm also convinced that only a soldier, a veteran, or a die-hard liberal will have the guts to cut the bloated military budget. maybe, but i don't see any evidence that clark will. heck, he even supports the SOA/WHISC (school of the assasins)! Posted by: selise at January 17, 2004 07:00 PM Kevin, I remember Clinton calling for a major Federal jobs program that never happened. He also shifted and slid on health care so much that, in refusing to confront the health insurance industry, he lost the support of the health justice organizations (at the time, Jim McDermott's "Single Payer" bill had over 100 cosponsors in the House, without White House support). The left stuck with Clinton, then abandoned Gore. They abandoned Gray Davis when they saw him triangulating them again. The state of the Dem Party is such that one of the first questions I ask about a candidate is now whether s/he will do this to us again. On the military budget: part of me agrees with you, in the classic "Nixon to China" way. On the other hand, Clark isn't talking about that now, and without any evidence that he's getting advice from people who clearly want to cut the Pentagon budget, I assume he won't do much. Under the influence of the DLC, it's now considered kooky-left to make a "guns or butter" argument. Posted by: Nick at January 19, 2004 10:21 PM I wrote an extensive piece on Wesley Clark and the SOA / WHISC issue; if you're interested, you can reach it by clicking on my nick (below this comment) or by pasting this link into your browser: Posted by: NV1962 at February 18, 2004 04:05 AM Post a comment
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