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October 07, 2002
Bush is Toast in 2004
When the public thinks a politician is fiddling while Rome burns, they are dead meat. The public will embrace all sorts of sins, but indifference is unforgiveable. As the CBS/NY Times Poll shows, the public thinks Bush is talking too much about Iraq and not doing enough about the economy. Only 41% approve of his handling of the economy and 51% think the Bush administration is using the Iraq war for political advantage. That is a deadly combo for Bush in 2004
As a short-term tactic, the Iraq debate has sucked up the oxygen that would have allowed Dems to use corporate corruption and health care to cinch a takeover of the House and it might even help the GOP retake the Senate. But the costs in 2004 will be gigantic. Voters will feel used and manipulated as the economy continues to stagnate and decline. And they will take it out on Bush and the GOP.
Bush will lose reelection and I'm actually pretty confident that the Dems will end up with solid control of both houses of Congress in 2004.
So Tom-- I'm hereby reinstating our bet at even odds (although JDW, you're not off the hook :) Any other takers are welcome if you still think the Shrub has a chance.
Posted by Nathan at October 7, 2002 10:27 AM
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Comments
I hoover that up for $100.
Even money, Bush gets sworn in on or about Jan 20, 2005, I win. (OK, George Bush). If Bush dies before the election, no bet. If Bush's lawful successor is sworn in in 2005, I win, which covers the case where Bush wins, then dies, a fate I expect many passionate Dems will share, emotionally at least.
No election/selection jive: moving into the Oval Office (or its replacement, in the event of terrorist attack) is decisive.
Now, we had talked about paying the charity of the other's choice, barring hideously inappropriate choices like, I don't even know, Friends of Osama. Anyway, loser pays to a charity the winner honestly supports. Is that still OK?
So, there's the cash (notionally). My entire rebuttal? Hmm, I don't trust audio links, although how cool would that be, but just hum along:
The sun will come out tomorrow
Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow
There'll be sun!
Regards,
Posted by: Tom Maguire at October 7, 2002 10:51 AM
Done. And yep, whoever has the nuclear football in their possession on January 20th is the winner of the election.
Posted by: Nathan Newman at October 7, 2002 11:00 AM
Possession of the nuclear football? Saddam will be long gone by then... but that is another bet.
Regards,
Posted by: Tom Maguire at October 7, 2002 01:32 PM
haha...I'm still confident you'll be paying my charity and all the while hoping yer not!
Posted by: jdw at October 7, 2002 08:21 PM
