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June 27, 2003

MoveOn - Kerry's Still the One

While Dean won the Moveon "primary", the results confirmed my sense that Kerry will end up with the most broadbased support in the end. Along with listing who was the first choice of each candidate, where Dean and Kucinich led this left-leaning pack.

But everyone was also asked if they could enthusiastically support the rest of the field. It was striking that strongly antiwar Moveon voters were very negative on not only Lieberman (42% enthusiasm), Edwards (56% enthusiasm) and Gephart (53% enthusiasm).

But on enthusiasm Kerry came in second behind Dean (who had 86% overall enthusiasm) with 75% willing to enthusiastically support Kerry.

That is a base of latent support on the left that he can supplement with latent support from more conservative Democrats. What this means is that which ever candidates fade as the campaign moves forward, Kerry will be able to pick up votes across the spectrum. Which will be the recipe for his likely nomination at the end of the day.

Posted by Nathan at June 27, 2003 12:28 PM