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July 18, 2003

More on California Recall

In comments, Preston writes:

Given a choice between 2 or 3 or more Republicans and an incumbent Democrat even Gray Davis could win.

As far as Preston's comments, that's the McAuliffe and Davis calculation. And it has the odor of the arrogance of the Prop 13 campaign, when people said anger over rising housing prices and taxes wouldn't make people do anything so crazy. But people will have a first vote focused on anger at Davis, up and down, and without having to directly vote for a GOP person on that vote, some will pull the lever. And with the Greens Camejo as an option, many left-Green types will happily vote for recall, knowing it will lead to one of the largest statewide totals for a Green candidate in history. So add together the GOP votes and the Green-leaning votes, and you have a majority that could well vote for recall.

And Stirling S Newberry writes:

Putting someone else on the ballot will mean the Republicans will field one candidate and win.

Unlikely. Issa has made clear that having paid for the recall, he is not going to step aside. And more moderate California Republicans won't leave the field to him-- Riordan will likely run and Schwartenegger has to take his shot, since this crazy election is his best opportunity. And the hardcore rightwing doesn't even think Issa is pure enough, so they might run someone.

So the reality is that if the Dems run a single candidate, say a caretaker like Leon Panetta as has been mentioned, they'd win the runoff in the cakewalk.

So here you have the option of risking everything on this stupid brinksmanship option, or almost guaranteeing a Democrat in office no matter what happens.

Arrogance. Pure and simple.

Posted by Nathan at July 18, 2003 10:03 AM