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July 21, 2004

Charlie Cook: Bush in Deep Trouble

Charlie Cook looks at the poll numbers and notes that Bush and Kerry have been de facto dead even in the polls for months. And that's possibly fatal news for Bush:

given the fact that well-known incumbents with a defined record rarely get many undecided voters -- a quarter to a third at an absolute maximum -- an incumbent in a very stable race essentially tied at 45 percent was actually anything but in an even-money situation...

The point is that this race has settled into a place that is not at all good for an incumbent, is remarkably stable, and one that is terrifying many Republican lawmakers, operatives and activists. But in a typically Republican fashion, they are too polite and disciplined to talk about it much publicly.

Here's the point of these comments. Don't read polls just for the spread between Bush and Kerry. Look for the spread between Bush and 50%. If Bush is much below 50%, he's in deep trouble in that state.

Posted by Nathan at July 21, 2004 07:28 AM