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January 09, 2003

Why Iraq War Looks Unlikely

Well, the warhawks are having a bad week.

First the embarassment of the ridiculousness of Bush's stand, or lack thereof, versus North Korea, as Josh Marshall has been highlighting.

Now U.N. inspectors have declared they have found no 'Smoking Guns' in Iraq and Turkey continues to express reluctance in letting the US station troops in that country.

Polls have consistently showed that the American people will not support a war without some proof of Iraqi weapons programs and agreement by our allies. The warhawks have neither to show them.

Maybe the warhawks will roll the dice counting on a successful war to steamroll that reluctance, but I still doubt it.

Posted by Nathan at January 9, 2003 12:36 PM

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Politically, I think Bush would benefit from waiting a year:

1) It would undercut his critics, make him seem to be thoughtful and cautious, etc. . . -- war next year as opposed to this one is a bizarre but effective form of triangulation.
2) It would make the success of the initial war effort closer in time to the election (and I don't think anyone major would accuse him of doing that intentionally), while
3) forestalling the whole messy "what after" scenarios until, largely, post-election.
4) Waiting a year would probably help internationally as well.

Posted by: Jeff at January 12, 2003 10:24 AM

that would be the smart thing to do, if it could be done. I've heard that suggested last September. The cover story would be for Bush to be 'reined in' by 'cooler heads', and giver Saddam time to come clean. Then, when Bush's righteous patience had run out, and it was time (e.g., March 04)to Protect America....

Posted by: Barry at January 16, 2003 04:19 PM

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