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January 11, 2003

EU tells America to toe the UN line

Or more on why war may not be coming.

See this UK Guardian story where the European Union's foreign policy chief bluntly said that only the UN security council can authorize military action.

"Without proof, it would be very difficult to start a war," Mr Solana told the French daily Le Monde. "The legitimacy of such a war will be determined by the security council. The UN arms inspectors derive their legitimacy from the council... so if there is not any information deemed sufficient by the security council... I would find it very difficult to act."
And the White House has been recognizing this slippage in recent comments. Worse is the fact that the new head of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, Richard Lugar, is a premiere multilateralist:
"I think that our government is going to continue to work with the UN," said Senator Richard Lugar, chairman of the foreign relations committee. "We wish the timetable was more clear. That may not be the case. But we have to work very cooperatively with a multinational group of people."
I just don't think Karl Rove will allow a unilateral war that could see sniping from REPUBLICAN moderates.

So either the White House dumps the intelligence they have proving Saddam has the bad-ass weapons, or they should just declare victory and go home. Which, if you are Karl Rove, is not a bad idea. Bush will be able to argue justifiably that only by playing "mad dog militarist" was the US able to force inspectors back into the country with the freedom to roam they've had.

Think like Karl Rove and you realize that this war just isn't that likely to happen.

Posted by Nathan at January 11, 2003 09:10 AM

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