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March 06, 2003

Bush LOSES to Dem in New Poll

Well, I've been saying Bush was going to lose since early last summer (Hi Tom, JW- pull out your pocketbooks), but here's the first poll to support it.

By a 48 -- 44 percent margin, American voters say they would vote for the as yet unnamed Democratic party candidate for President over Republican incumbent George W. Bush, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

And since the poll shows that 38% of the respondents want to go to war without UN support- about what every other poll shows, if not skewed even a bit pro-war, it will be hard for folks to dismiss it too easily as oversampling doves or liberals. It's only one poll, but it's a start.

Thanks to Hesiod.

Posted by Nathan at March 6, 2003 12:02 PM

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Heh. Patience, patience.

Posted by: jdw at March 6, 2003 06:27 PM

Unless, gentlemen to my left, you wish to merely enjoy your illusions, note this Fox poll (contact me for the link if you haven't seen it).

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?

Approve - 55%, disapprove - 33%;

13. Do you support or oppose U.S. military action to disarm Iraq and remove Iraqi President Saddam Hussein?

Support - 71%; oppose - 24%

You see, the people of the USA are not as stupid as the left would have us believe.

And, yes, JDW, patience. Indeed.

Joseph Alexander Norland

Posted by: Joseph Alexander Norland at March 6, 2003 07:02 PM

I think I've found the FOX poll to which you are referring (FOX News/Opinion Dynamics - Feb 25-26, 2003)

If you read the article, you'll find that the Quinnipiac poll has Bush's job approval rating at 53 -- 39 percent, putting the abovementioned FOX poll well within the margin of error (+/- 2.8 pts).

The number cited is his reelection number (okay, not to purists, but close enough) - in campaign circles, the only one that really counts. In this case, an unnamed Democrat is leading Bush by a 48 -- 44 percent margin.

On your second numbers, relating to US support for removing Saddam Hussein from power, the question is deceptive. When you factor in the idea of the US acting alone vs. under a UN mandate, the numbers shift dramatically. Unfortunately, your FOX poll doesn't specifically ask the question, although others have.

The closest question is #8a (although even it doesn't mention the possibility of the US attacking Iraq alone): "Chief weapons inspector Hans Blix is scheduled to make a report to the U.N. Security Council on Friday. If Blix reports that Iraq is cooperating and inspectors are making progress, do you think President Bush should delay plans for war with Iraq or has Iraq been given too many chances already?" The results? 47 percent delay -- 44 percent no more delays. No longer overwhelmingly for war.

Using partial data and trying to gloss over the results - particularly with polling data - almost never works in your favor.

Finally, if by "patience" you mean "The election is 20 months away," then yes, we all need to exercise some patience before we get too excited about a poll that doesn't even involve actual candidates. In the end, the only value of this poll is psychological. It works just like the $2 barrier for gasoline. Now that it has been broken, anything can happen.

Posted by: Justin at March 9, 2003 02:35 AM

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