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July 03, 2002

The Next President?

Senator John Edwards, one of the most likely Democratic nominees for 2004, has a new website, New American Optimists.
...Bush will lose the Presidency in 2004 (I'll have a longer post soon on why I think it's a firm bet), so this guy joins Massachusetts' John Kerry as the most likely successors. Check out Christopher Hitchens fawning profile on the site.

Posted by Nathan at July 3, 2002 11:12 AM

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Oh, I'm like a kid waiting for Christmas with all this 2004 talk. I suppose I should wait for your post, but, since you mentioned that it is a firm bet, be sure to include odds and size. I would suggest that the loser pays to a charity of the winner's choice.

Good form is two way odds, tight bid/offer, good size, but anyone in Jersey City would know that.

Do you give up on Al Gore so soon? Mo Dowd today describes Gorzac and Bozoloft, among other possible new anti-depressants.


Posted by: Tom Maguire at July 3, 2002 01:09 PM

Of course I want to see GWB lose in 2004, but predictions of presidential elections more than a year out have an extremely poor track record.

And the more confident they are, the more wrong they are.

As late as early '96, the pundits were unanimous that Clinton was dead meat. Four years earlier, there was similar alleged certainty that GHWB was utterly unbeatable in '92.

Back in late '99, the election-prediction-model folks called the 2000 election for Gore by a wide margin, and they convinced me. Okay, Gore still barely won the popular vote, but close was not part of their diagram.

So, I'll be skeptical about this.

Posted by: Larry Kestenbaum at July 3, 2002 01:24 PM

Predict away! That's one of the best parts of the blogosphere. Sure, things change a lot, but what the heck. It's fun to brag when the predictions pan out, and it's fun to see others laugh at you when they don't. Me, I've got my money on Edwards being the next president of the US, and in 2004. It doesn't mean he's my favorite (I would prefer Dean or Kerry), but he's simply the most electable, especially 1 on 1 against Bush. If I'm wrong, oh well. There's always the next election.

Posted by: Kos at July 3, 2002 01:41 PM

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